2017 brought some interesting changes to Hawaii’s travel industry, many of which will continue through 2018. So here’s my 2018 Hawaii travel predictions.
Yesterday I discussed how laws going into effect at the beginning of the year would affect visitors to Hawaii. But there’s more to pricing than just legislation. If 2017 has proven anything, its Hawaii’s travel market is becoming more dynamic. Especially as different segments of the travel industry change in different ways and at different paces. So here’s what I think visitors to the islands can expect in 2018, and perhaps even beyond.
Air Travel
2017 was a BIG year for air travel in Hawaii. Last year we saw two low-cost carriers from Asia enter the market, AirAsia X and Scoot. Southwest Airlines also made a big splash by announcing that they’d be coming to Hawaii too, though when they’d begin service is anyone’s guess. Most likely we’ll see Southwest commence service to Hawaii in late 2018, to early 2019. And, of course, towards the end of the year, Sun Country announced that they’d begin seasonal service to Hawaii too.
But, beyond the new entrants, there was still a lot of capacity being added by carriers currently serving the islands. Hawaiian, for one, is going to have a massive growth year with new seasonal routes, and new, direct service between the neighbor islands and the U.S. West Coast using their new A321neo aircraft. United and Alaska have also been busy adding new routes and increasing frequencies to the islands, with most being direct flights between the neighbor islands and the U.S. West Coast too.
In fact, according to Hawaii News Now, airlift to the islands is up by 100,000 seats for January 2018 when compared to the same period last year.
So what does this mean for airfare? Tickets for travel between the Continental U.S. and Hawaii could actually get cheaper in 2018. This is especially true as Southwest enters the market, though the intensifying competition between existing players could probably cause airfare to fall on its own. And we’ve already seen a preview of what could happen with insanely low prices between select cities across the Continental U.S. and Hawaii with Alaska, American, Delta, Hawaiian, and United.
Hotels
New services and lower fares often mean more visitors to the island, which is great. However, unlike the airlines, hotel capacity isn’t exactly growing. There have been a number of new hotel openings in the past year, but a number of them were conversion projects. And even though there were a decent number of new construction hotels opening last year, inventories may not be able to keep up with demand. So while airfare to the islands could get cheaper this year, hotel rates could do the exact opposite and increase dramatically, especially since hotel rates rose steadily throughout 2017, especially on the neighbor islands. In fact, the latest available data shows that the Hawaii-average room rate rose to $243, as of November 2017. This represents a 1.4% average rate increase from the same period the year prior.
Rates, however, are highly variable and will adjust throughout the year. In fact, rates were much higher at the beginning of the year, though late December and early January tend to see higher rates than November. Naturally, rates tend to rise more around spring break and summer months too.
2018 Hawaii Travel Predictions, Final Thoughts
The short story here is, while airfare will likely decrease in 2018 (and perhaps into 2019), hotel rates in Hawaii will probably increase. It’s simple supply and demand. Heavy demand areas like Waikiki rarely see new construction and may not be able to absorb significant increases in visitor arrivals. Yes, Oahu did have new hotel openings in 2017, but most were in Kapolei and catered more to military/government travel and visiting families. Further, conversions to timeshares, such as that happening at the Waikoloa Beach Marriott further erode the number of available rooms. Oh, and let’s not forget Halekulani Corp’s plans to significantly reduce the room count at the Waikiki Parc.
But, things aren’t all doom-and-gloom on the hospitality front. New hotels are planned or under construction on Oahu and Maui. The biggest of these will be China Oceanwide’s Atlantis Ko Olina, which will have around 1,00 rooms. However, that project hasn’t even broken ground yet, so its effect won’t be felt for years to come.
Being a food-heavy blog, I thought you would include some restaurant predictions too.
I only have one night in Waikiki on an upcoming trip to the Big Island, and am leaning towards getting the Lobster Pot Pie at Stripsteak for dinner. Lunches will be Marukame Udon and Duke’s Lane Market Eatery. Touristy, I know, but would you recommend anything else for a upscale (but not crazy-expensive) dinner? Any food recommendations you have for the Big Island would also be appreciated.
Pat, I was considering this! But there really aren’t much in the way of new restaurants slated for opening in Hawaii this year… yet. The two most high profile ones so far are probably Masaharu Morimoto’s Morimoto Asia and Momosan, both of which will be opening at the Alohilani Resort in Waikiki. Oahu Mexican Grill was another that people have been looking forward to since their location near UH closed a while back, but other players have entered the market that (I think) will soften their business.
Anyway, I think you’ve got some solid options there! Not touristy at all. Marukame is a tasty and smart choice; Japan-quality udon at bargain basement prices. It’s easily my go-to at both their Waikiki and downtown Honolulu locations. Duke’s Lane… It’s been hit or miss. I liked the lamb burger a lot, but the prices are high (even for Waikiki) and the time we had pasta it was overcooked and under seasoned. Never had Stripsteak, but that’s on the list. Yauatcha is someplace I’d go to just for the prawn & crispy beancurd cheng fun, but the places is expensive and kind of hit or miss.
In Waikiki, as you know, things are a crap shot. But some of my favorite places include: Bill’s Sydney for pasta and the Korean chicken app at dinner, Ginza Bairin for Tonkatsu (never been, but had it before off-site), Appetito for the portabello fries (have to return since they just started serving pizza), Hideout at the Laylow for the brussels sprouts and drinks or fried rice at breakfast, Bario Ramen at Waikiki Yokocho for the most indulgent (porky, fatty goodness) ramen and tsukemen, Tsujita (also at Yokocho) for a lighter tsukemen.
Boy, I went off on a tangent there. You wanted upscale, right? Your best options here are going to be outside of Waikiki, but not too far outside. In downtown Honolulu, I’d suggest checking out either PAI Honolulu or Senia. Both are reviewed here, and both are incredible. PAI edges Senia out a little because we’ve gotten to know the owners and love them dearly, but based on cuisine and service alone, they’re both equal in different ways. And both offer a more expensive chef’s table tasting menu, or a cheaper dining room experience. I’d say take a look at both and choose the one that sounds best, but reservations can be difficult to get at Senia thanks to all the media attention they got and their 3-Michelin Star pedigree. These are my go-to nice places to eat. But if sushi is more your thing, Sushi Murayama is excellent, especially for the price. It isn’t fine dining, but the quality is top-notch. You could also check out Arancino at the Kahala for excellent Italian, much better than their Waikiki locations if you ask me.
For the Big Island, I liked Daylight Mind Coffee Co on Alii Drive in Kona. Wasn’t a big fan of the breakfast (ironic, right?) but the dinner was nice, especially for that island. However, their review ratings have gone down since we last visited, so dine at your own risk! Honestly, though, not much experience on that island. For what it’s worth, on my list are: Ulu Ocean Grill (Hualalai), Hualalai Grille, La Bourgogne (Kona), Sam Choy’s Kai Lani (Kona), Nori’s (Hilo), Cafe 100 (Hilo), Suisan (Hilo), and Ken’s House of Pancakes (Hilo, been before, but it’s been at least 15 years since my last visit). And don’t forget to pickup some mochi wrapped strawberries and other delectibles from Two Ladies Kitchen in Hilo, and Ohelo Berry Jam from KTA.
Hope this helps! Aloha
Wow, I wasn’t expecting so much help. Thanks! I’m staying at the Laylow (your reviews sold me) and will have some dining credit that will “force” me to eat at The Hideout. I’ll try to hit-up as many recommendations as I can, but will be strapped for time on Oahu, and unfortunately can’t justify the expense of Pai (even though it looks incredible).
With some strategizing, I can hit-up the Hilo and Kona spots; however, the island is arranged inconveniently for tourists, with the cities/airports/food in the NE and SW corners, the volcano on the SE corner, and most resorts on the NW corner (they really should have put the volcano elsewhere). I’ll get to survey how “big” the island really is though.
Always glad to help! And I’m glad to hear you’ll be at the Laylow. I hope you’ll enjoy the property as much as I did. If not, my other recommendation is the Hyatt Centric Waikiki, which is right next door. I did forget to mention that, overall, my favorite ramen spot is Golden Pork (Golden Pork Tsukemen is my go-to). Japengo at the Hyatt Regency Waikiki is another solid option, and I believe you can earn World of Hyatt points just for dining there, but I’ll need to double check on that. Tonkatsu Tamafuji just outside of Waikiki is similar to Ginza Bairin but cheaper and the (Hokkaido-grown) rice and cabbage are all-you-can-eat. However, the line is often long and they don’t take reservations. For a unique dining experience, head over to Mud Hen Water, where I suggest you order the He’e Luau (grilled octopus with taro leaves), the pa’i’ai which is sauced and grilled, and the keawe bean brownie.
The Big Island is very inconveniently laid out, I’d agree. I hate the no-ac in a desert mess of an airport that is KOA, but that’s the side of the island with the decent and good hotels! Granted Hilo now has a Hilton too. And, of course, Hilo is where all the stuff you want to do and see are. If you’re down for it, I highly suggest checking out the Skyline Eco Adventure Tours zipline near Akaka Falls. Driving on the Big Island is also a lot more like the continental U.S. than any other island in the state too, though the highways usually have only one lane in each direction. Driving from Hilo to Kona around the southern tip of the island should take you all of 2-3 hours, no stops. A trek across the saddle between Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea will take you 1.5-2.5 hours. It takes me 1.5 hours, but I won’t say how fast I was going lol. I did, however, add somewhere between 300 and 600 miles (I forget) to the rental car I had during the 3 or 4 days I was there last time.
Oh, and most of the places I’ve listed in Hilo are old-school local joints. Never been to any of those places besides Ken’s, but they look like they’re the basic, no-frills kinds of places that used to be so common. In fact, we went to a “nice” restaurant by the fish pond in Hilo (forget the name) that serves fresh fish (the only place you’ll get aholehole [Pacific Flagtail] at a restaurant), and the soup they serve… Straight out of a can. Likewise, their “house dressing” is doctored grocery store variety. It’s always interesting going to those old-school places because it shows just how far dining has come in Hawaii. Not to say these places are bad, just temper your expectations. Was a bit of a shock for me for sure!
And if you need any more tips, don’t hesitate to ask. Always happy to help!