Recently, I reported on Hawaii’s prediction for its 2023 Hurricane Season. At the time of the forecast, there was a good chance for an above-average season, though the likelihood of that just increased because El Nino 2023 is here.
This year, NOAA predicts a 15% chance of seeing a below-average hurricane season, a 35% chance that it’ll be average, and a 50% chance of an above-average season. The prediction of an above-average season was largely predicated on El Nino forming this year, which in itself wasn’t a certainty. However, El Nino 2023 is here now, far earlier than anyone thought it would be.
El Nino 2023 is Here
Typically, El Nino begins around July/August. But here we are, early June, and it’s already here. What does this mean? Unfortunately, according to NOAA scientists, it means that El Nino has more time to develop. As such, they’re predicting that there’s a 56% chance that this will be a strong El Nino and a 25% chance that it’ll be a supersized one. Of course, the size of an El Nino directly correlates with its impact on global weather.
Typically, El Nino means we should expect warmer temperatures around the world along with increased tropical cyclone activity in the Pacific and fewer storms in the Atlantic. The warmer ocean temperatures are the primary driver for the increase in storms in the Pacific, while changes in winds normally suppress cyclones in the Atlantic. While scientists say we should still expect more tropical cyclones in the Pacific this year, they say that we shouldn’t expect decreased activity in the Atlantic thanks to overall warmer ocean temperatures, even on that side of the world.
Aside from tropical cyclone activity, El Nino also has impacts on general rainfall. For Hawaii, that means we’ll likely experience drier conditions, which is the opposite of what we’ve been experiencing recently. In fact, coming off of La Nina, everyone can expect their rainfall averages to take a 180 compared to what they have been over the past year-ish. So while Hawaii has been nice and green lately, it won’t stay that way – especially as we move into the latter part of this year. The caveat to this, though, is that El Nino will fuel more non-tropical cyclone storms, too, so we could end up seeing more severe weather. Then again, EVERYONE is at risk of seeing more severe weather.
Final Thoughts
While we should expect a dry winter this year in Hawaii, summer might be a bit wetter than normal. The thing that I hate the most about El Ninio, though, is its impacts on our trade winds. Typically, El Nino weakens our trade winds and can shift them from an easterly direction to a westerly one, which is even more concerning given Kilauea’s current eruption. But there’s no use dwelling on it since El Nino 2023 is here.