Despite unusually inconsistent dry and wet spells throughout the summer, we ended up having a higher average rainfall total than normal. That trend looks like it’ll continue into later this year and early next year, as Hawai’i may have a wetter winter 2024.
Though Hawai’i has fairly consistent weather year round, we do have distinct seasons. As one might expect, summers are usually hotter and dryer, while winters are cooler and wetter. Spring tends to see the craziest weather outside of hurricanes. However, like anywhere else, other influences can cause shifts in our weather patterns, this is especially true of the ocean temperature phenomena known as El Niňo and La Niňa. And, as you may suspect, it’s these influences that are the reason Hawai’i may have a wetter winter 2024. Unfortunately, they can be difficult to predict, so take this with a grain of salt.
Hawai’i May Have a Wetter Winter 2024
As reported by the Honolulu Star-Advertiser, forecasters with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are predicting the emergence of La Niňa conditions towards the end of November, which will cause cooler than average ocean temperatures in the equatorial Pacific. However, this year’s La Niňa is expected to be a weak one, which may cause the formation of many low pressure systems around the islands. This will have the effect of, unfortunately, dampening our tradewinds. Whereas, during medium to strong La Niňa years, we’d see more tradewind days. This means we can look forward to a potentially muggier winter.
That said, NOAA hydrologists say that the lower winds will help to concentrate more rains in the islands’ dryer leeward sides, which will help with drought conditions in those areas. However, with higher than average rain forecasted, NOAA officials urge island residents to prepare for potential flooding events and landslides. We may also see an increase in thunderstorm activities, which can lead to power outages (and power surges).
Outside of the general weather patterns, our weak La Niňa winter may also mean a lower probability for big wave surf. As such, the likelihood that Eddie Aikau Big Wave Surf Competition could happen this winter is fairly slim.
My Take
Any of you planning on traveling to Hawai’i (or island hopping for my kama’aina readers), you may want to consider how the fact that Hawai’i may have a wetter winter 2024 may impact your plans. For example, if you’re planning a lot of outdoor activities, such as hiking, surfing, cruises, golf, etc., the weather may have an adverse impact on those plans. Moreover, if NOAA’s worst predictions come true and we see more frequent thunderstorms, you may end up being forced to stay in your room. Sort of.
While you could certainly still go on hikes and whatnot during a thunderstorm, it isn’t advisable. However, beyond that, many resorts will close their outdoor facilities during these events. This was the case once while staying at Aulani. Never had I seen the public areas of that hotel empty like that before.
Final Thoughts
Personally, I’m not looking forward to the fact that Hawai’i may have a wetter winter 2024. While I do think it’s good, as we need the rainy, and generally like rainy days at home, humid days are just the worst. But, it is what it is. However, for those of you traveling, be sure to plan accordingly. If you do have outdoor-heavy plans for your visit to the islands, then consider rescheduling for a dryer time. For what it’s worth, NOAA’s prediction for increased rain runs from December 2024 through April 2025. And, as I said before, March-April tends to see our craziest weather!